ProCal

ProCal is a "Probability Calculator" that evaluates algebraic expressions where the parameters in the expression are probability distributions. This class of problem is common in risk analysis where the outcomes of a problem can be described in terms of a frequency distribution.  The problems are solved using Monte Carlo simulation.

In ProCal the component parameters are defined in terms of probability functions, and the expression to be evaluated as an algebraic expression like that shown below:

In this case the construction costs for the project are identified as the parameters (A to E), and the total costs as the expression A+B+C+D+E.  The following figure shows a typical frequency distribution for one of the parameters - a simple triangular distribution in this case.

The following figure shows the frequency distribution of the total cost using Monte Carl simulation.

ProCal supports a range of built-in standard probability distributions including: Point, Uniform, Tri, TriPrac, Normal, Beta, BetaPERT and Gamma.

ProCal functions can be built using standard algebraic notation (+, -, *, / and ^) as well as a small set of commonly used functions (exp, ln, log. max and min).

ProCal is written in Java and requires a JRE (Java Runtime Environment) to run in interactive mode.  ProCal also provides a programmers API to allow user to develop their own programs where arbitrarily complex models can be built and solved using the the ProCal simulation engine.  In this case the full JDK (Java Development Kit) is required.

An evaluation version of ProCal can be downloaded from here.